A few weeks ago, a friend told me half-jokingly and half-seriously that I wrote Marco Rubio's campaign game plan on June 11, 2009 when I published a piece titled "The 3M Campaign Cycle Reversed" on SayfieReview.com. In the piece, I argued that with the right candidate and the right message, the internet could level the playing field and help reverse the conventional wisdom that you must run a "Traditional 3M" campaign to get elected to office. I argued that the Traditional 3M model was based on big money to launch a campaign, followed by momentum, with the candidate's message being a distant third priority. This model can be diagrammed like this:
MONEY → MOMENTUM → MESSAGE
Using the internet to drive message directly to voters, victory is now possible for candidates who don’t have big money to kick-start their campaigns, by following a “New 3M” model that looks like this:
MESSAGE → MOMENTUM → MONEY
When I wrote the 3M piece 5 months ago, I had the race for the Republican nomination for the open Florida U.S. Senate seat in mind. At the time, it seemed unthinkable that Marco Rubio, the insurgent candidate with no money or momentum, could beat political titan Charlie Crist. Today, it is a very real possibility. 9 months away from this critical primary that politicos inside and outside of Florida are deeming the “Battle for the GOP’s Soul”, it appears that this race has indeed become a battle between a Traditional 3M campaign and a New 3M campaign.
It was clear from the beginning that Charlie Crist would run a Traditional 3M style campaign as he had done so many times in the past. So far, nothing has changed. Crist has spent nearly all of his campaign time bundling big money at traditional big-ticket fundraisers. The expectations for how much Crist would raise were set incredibly high, and Charlie Crist crushed them to the tune of more than $6.4 million dollars raised with $6.2 million cash-on-hand as of October 8, 2009. Crist has trounced not only Marco Rubio in raising big money; he has become the leading Republican Senatorial fundraiser in the entire country for the 2010 cycle. Though Rubio showed glimmers of hope at the end of the last fundraising report in early October raising $1 million, he has fallen far short of Crist’s ability to bundle big money. However, Rubio has successfully raised money from smaller donors (more than 11,000 of them) most of whom he can raise money from again. By comparison, more than 850 Crist donors have already maxed out, meaning they can not give to Crist again until the General Election.
Even with all of his big money, Crist has fallen far short of reaching the “Second M” of the Traditional 3M campaign cycle - momentum. If anything, momentum has shifted against Crist and turned in favor of his opponent on the short end of a 5-to-1 financial disadvantage - Marco Rubio.
Marco Rubio’s momentum is undeniable. It is difficult to read the Florida papers without reading of Rubio gaining in the polls, another lopsided straw poll victory or a story about how national conservatives are rallying to Rubio’s side attempting to put a giant bull’s eye on Charlie Crist. Rubio is being hailed inside and outside Florida as the poster boy (literally) of the conservative movement. So what’s driving all of this momentum? According to the models I have outlined above, either big money or message.
So far, Rubio’s momentum has certainly not been driven by big money which drives a Traditional 3M campaign, leaving us with message. So far, Rubio’s message has been largely nationalized - more about the future of a more conservative Republican Party than about the issues specific to the Florida Senate race. This has forced me, as well as others, to ask what exactly is Marco Rubio’s message? This very question was posed to Rubio in an October interview on FOX Business:
So far, Rubio’s momentum has certainly not been driven by big money which drives a Traditional 3M campaign, leaving us with message. So far, Rubio’s message has been largely nationalized - more about the future of a more conservative Republican Party than about the issues specific to the Florida Senate race. This has forced me, as well as others, to ask what exactly is Marco Rubio’s message? This very question was posed to Rubio in an October interview on FOX Business:
Rubio’s answer: “What we’re campaigning on is that America is an exceptional society. There’s never been a freer, more prosperous people.”
If Marco Rubio doesn’t think there is a Crist ad out there ready to attack Rubio’s message as being nothing more than piggy-backing the Greatest Generation, he has another thing coming. But even though Rubio has kept his campaign message broad and nationalized, there is something about his message that is clearly resonating with voters.
Just before the November 3 election in New York’s 23rd congressional district, I tweeted the following:
Harnessing voter anger may actually qualify as a platform this cycle.
This is what I believe we are seeing with Rubio’s campaign in Florida, which has indeed been modeled as a New 3M style campaign. Though his message has been broad, he has been successful in harnessing grassroots anger and discontent with the political establishment (namely Charlie Crist) giving his campaign remarkable momentum that shows no signs of stopping.
As Crist ramps up his campaign and rhetoric, the true test of Rubio’s implementation of a New 3M campaign model will be whether or not that message is strong enough to continue to drive momentum and eventually lead to the big money he will need to defeat Charlie Crist.
