Terry McAuliffe - you know that name - former Democratic National Committee Chairman, Chair of Hillary Clinton for President and long-time Clinton family friend. Well in case you haven’t heard, Mr. McAuliffe has been running for Governor of Virginia, Florida’s not-so-politically-different friend to the North, since just after the 2008 Election. McAuliffe quickly racked up all of the big money, big consultants and big star-power his team thought necessary to win the seemingly smooth primary in Virginia. But, he lost this past Tuesday to State Senator Creigh Deeds. Who? Exactly. And while Deeds had run state-wide in Virginia in 2005 and lined up a few heavy hitters for his most recent campaign for Governor, there was a fundamental difference between him and McAuliffe in 2009. McAuliffe, much like Hillary Clinton, ran as if his nomination was inevitable. His campaign banked on using big money and institutional support as the driving force in his campaign, instead of his message.
Tuesday’s Primary Election in Virginia should be a wake-up call to all incumbents, challengers and political operatives across the State of Florida. The campaign cycle of what I call “The 3 Ms” is reversing itself in more and more races across the country and it will likely appear in campaigns across Florida in 2010.
Tuesday’s Primary Election in Virginia should be a wake-up call to all incumbents, challengers and political operatives across the State of Florida. The campaign cycle of what I call “The 3 Ms” is reversing itself in more and more races across the country and it will likely appear in campaigns across Florida in 2010.
The Traditional 3M Cycle
Every political consultant and politician knows this cycle of the political campaign by heart. Big money leads to momentum which finally leads you to find your message.
MONEY → MOMENTUM → MESSAGE
While this cycle will continue to win elections, it is far less effective today than it has been in the past. Barack Obama’s victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic Primary is the most high-profile case study in how this cycle can fail in the modern day campaign. Terry McAuliffe’s crushing loss on Tuesday (roughly a 24% margin) provides a more recent and more local example. For those who think what happens in Virginia has no bearing on us in Florida, consider that these are both purple states that went for Bush in 2000 and 2004 and Obama in 2008 with very similar margins of victory.
In the past, this cycle has typically been the formula for victory; but with the increase of political engagement at the local level, driven by technology’s further democratization of the political process, this cycle is becoming less and less relevant.
Having the money and support of the political establishment is rarely a bad thing. After all, “seed money” is critical to any campaign no matter how high-profile the candidate. It’s when the money comes before the candidate’s message that problems arise.
In the past, this cycle has typically been the formula for victory; but with the increase of political engagement at the local level, driven by technology’s further democratization of the political process, this cycle is becoming less and less relevant.
Having the money and support of the political establishment is rarely a bad thing. After all, “seed money” is critical to any campaign no matter how high-profile the candidate. It’s when the money comes before the candidate’s message that problems arise.
The New 3M Cycle
In 2008 President Obama put the new 3M cycle to work on the grandest of stages and since then, you have seen it begin to take shape in races here in Florida and across the country. A solid message leads to momentum which leads to big money.
MESSAGE → MOMENTUM → MONEY
Creigh Deeds started his campaign in Virginia similarly to Barack Obama’s campaign for President in the sense that message came first. Message came before the big money, before the endorsements and before the momentum. In both instances, sincere grassroot campaigns were able to achieve victory not because of initial institutional support, but because of the right candidate with the right message for the right time.
If you have all of the big money, consultants and endorsements in the world, that’s great. But don’t flaunt it around to the extent that your campaign becomes the campaign of inevitability. 2008 was not the year for that and neither will be 2010.
If I were a candidate running for office in Florida in 2010, I would take a strong, sincere, relevant message over money and the support of the establishment any day.
The new campaign cycle has proven itself on the national stage and elsewhere across the country. It is only a matter of which candidate it will propel to victory in Florida in 2010.
If I were a candidate running for office in Florida in 2010, I would take a strong, sincere, relevant message over money and the support of the establishment any day.
The new campaign cycle has proven itself on the national stage and elsewhere across the country. It is only a matter of which candidate it will propel to victory in Florida in 2010.
